Income expectations lead the recovery

All four key components of the index have improved, with household income expectations showing the most noticeable progress. As the end of the year approaches, the prospect of bonuses and seasonal income often contributes to a more positive outlook among consumers.

Still, purchasing intentions and perceptions of the overall economic situation remain subdued. The slight improvement in confidence appears to stem less from renewed optimism than from a decline in strong pessimism regarding employment prospects and household finances.

The Pain Point: Durable Goods Purchase Intentions Remain Constrained

The “durable goods purchase outlook” index stands at 51 in Q1 2026. This is a strong signal of wait-and-see behavior: in an environment where the cost of living drives trade-offs, households are protecting their cash flow and postponing major decisions.

What are the business implications? Exposed sectors (home equipment, electronics, furniture) are operating in a more “rational” market: increased price sensitivity, greater attention to financing options, perceived value, and decision-support mechanisms (warranties, trade-ins, bundles, services).

Perception of the Economy: A “Hybrid” Indicator, Highly Sensitive to Context

The study highlights a significant gap between perceptions of the “current” economy (45) and the “future” economy (58). Households are therefore projecting themselves into a better future while still describing a challenging present.

It is worth noting that in international barometers, this type of question does not only measure macroeconomic conditions. It primarily aggregates perceptions of cost of living/purchasing power, financial security, and the climate of uncertainty. In practice, it acts as a thermometer of caution and a proxy for the propensity to consume.

A Paradox to Watch: Improving Confidence, but National Sentiment Under Pressure

Despite the improvement in confidence, approximately 59–60% believe that the country is not moving “in the right direction.” This gap is common: consumption may normalize (out of necessity) without a strong rebound in domestic investment intentions.

What are the key challenges for economic stakeholders? In this context, clarity of signals (pricing, offers, visibility, stability) becomes a strategic lever. Brands and institutions that reduce perceived uncertainty (through transparency, proof of value, security, and support) mechanically improve performance.

Key Takeaways

• Confidence: 62.1 in Q1 2026, recovery confirmed but momentum remains moderate.
• Major purchases: Durable goods at 51, persistent caution.
• Economy: Future (58) significantly above present (45) → conditional optimism.
• National climate: ~60% judge the country’s trajectory negatively.